Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 20.073354 23.320143 27.203517 32.274907 38.854439 47.298879 59.304798
2025-02-09 15.574398 19.176043 23.892426 30.753269 40.920033 56.271432 83.217154
2025-02-16 13.824679 17.734871 23.203522 31.846560 46.137428 71.117566 125.473101
2025-02-23 12.314822 16.254114 22.026096 31.724827 49.193393 83.736233 175.926435
2025-03-02 11.164298 15.071564 21.015171 31.524082 51.913715 97.131734 246.585184
2025-03-09 10.374234 14.296352 20.473093 31.937284 55.886465 115.870794 372.852324
2025-03-16 9.435958 13.172234 19.187007 30.707447 55.998033 125.069252 490.451866
2025-03-23 8.839653 12.518811 18.589989 30.646315 58.713625 144.122354 756.772833
2025-03-30 8.105450 11.570600 17.367807 29.117522 57.418195 149.395763 967.127155
2025-04-06 7.424330 10.655222 16.111091 27.324474 54.979974 149.205519 1143.727285
2025-04-13 6.882408 9.932286 15.132463 25.977507 53.403739 151.778985 1429.788439
2025-04-20 7.038288 10.389274 16.334822 29.520716 66.730447 237.063913 10588.481823
2025-04-27 6.889128 10.328075 16.601066 31.140643 75.720804 327.358747 NaN
2025-05-04 6.417833 9.664067 15.632714 29.645759 73.695127 339.823247 NaN
2025-05-11 6.248577 9.525313 15.685235 30.683988 81.380781 460.787843 NaN
2025-05-18 5.985305 9.194818 15.314021 30.568574 84.692596 559.431904 NaN
2025-05-25 5.739217 8.878179 14.939486 30.378410 87.707269 679.480261 NaN
2025-06-01 5.562466 8.677641 14.787265 30.769812 93.663915 911.975631 NaN
2025-06-08 5.275936 8.252915 14.120778 29.604485 91.721316 970.632981 NaN
2025-06-15 5.096786 8.021570 13.852386 29.546530 95.399357 1246.973067 NaN
2025-06-22 4.826402 7.601944 13.143263 28.096268 91.207646 1227.888116 NaN
2025-06-29 4.552957 7.165621 12.374136 26.393015 85.213627 1113.571237 NaN
2025-07-06 4.325841 6.809965 11.764652 25.111809 81.224518 1071.982619 NaN